Daily News | The Fed Will Announce Its Interest Rate Decision Tomorrow Morning, BMT's Highest Intraday Increase Exceeded 100%

Crypto Daily Digest: CME SOL futures trading on the first day was cold, the Fed will announce the interest rate decision tomorrow morning

According to Farside Investors data, the total net inflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs yesterday was $208 million, of which BlackRock IBIT had an inflow of $217 million and ARKB had an outflow of $9 million. BTC ETFs had a net inflow of more than $200 million for two consecutive days, but BTC is still in a narrow range of fluctuations.

Yesterday, the Ethereum spot ETF had a total outflow of $52.4 million, of which BlackRock ETHA had an outflow of $39.8 million and Grayscale ETHE had an outflow of $9.3 million. The ETH/BTC exchange rate is currently at 0.0233, which remains at a nearly 4-year low.

The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision tomorrow morning, with only a 1% chance of a rate cut in March

According to CME’s “FedWatch” data, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time tomorrow. The probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March is only 1%, and the probability of maintaining unchanged is 99%.

The probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points by May is 0.2%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 18.6%, and the probability of maintaining unchanged interest rates is 81.2%.

Analysis of key price levels before the Fed’s interest rate meeting: Bitcoin stuck below $85,000

According to Gate.io market data, Bitcoin price failed to hit the $85,000 resistance level again on March 17. In the past five days, the intraday highs have always hovered between $84,000 and $85,200, but failed to stand above $84,600. As the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting (the interest rate decision will be announced at 2 a.m. Beijing time on March 20) approaches, the market has entered a “no man’s land” - price fluctuations are full of uncertainty, and the long-short game has intensified. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate of 4.25% to 4.50% is 99%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 1%. Although CPI (2.8%) and PCE (2.5%-2.6%) are still above the 2% target, the latest data do not meet the threshold for an immediate rate cut; the unemployment rate (4.1%) and GDP (2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024) still show that the economy is resilient. Polymarket predicts that the Fed will end quantitative tightening before April 30, which may pave the way for a summer rate cut.

Analysts have different views. Anonymous analyst SuperBitcoinBro pointed out that in the worst case, Bitcoin may test the support range of $71,300 to $73,800. Analyst Nebraskangooner believes that the FOMC result is unpredictable, and Bitcoin needs to recover $86,250 to confirm short-term bullishness, otherwise it may fall back to $70,000. Powell will hold a press conference after announcing the interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time on March 20, and the market is focusing on his statements on inflation and the path of interest rate cuts.

CME Solana futures first day of trading was cold, ETF approval may be difficult to replicate Bitcoin’s success

According to TheBlock, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Solana futures were launched quietly on March 17, with a trading volume of only $12.3 million on the first day and an open interest of $7.8 million, far less than the previous brilliant performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum futures. K33 Research analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman pointed out in their latest report that this data reflects the cold attitude of institutions towards altcoins. Even if the Solana ETF is approved in the future, its boosting effect on SOL prices may be weaker than market expectations.

The launch of CME futures is often seen as a prelude to the approval of spot ETFs, but analysts believe that even if Solana ETF is launched, it will be difficult to replicate the frenzy of Bitcoin ETF in 2024. Bitcoin ETF was born in the resonance period of halving expectations and macro easing, and the current market lacks similar narratives. In addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum, the institutional derivatives market of other altcoins has weak growth, which reflects that under macroeconomic uncertainty, institutions prefer to allocate “digital gold” rather than high-risk assets. Bitcoin’s “commodity” positioning brings a clear compliance path, while altcoins are still in a gray area. Despite the short-term setbacks, the developer activity and technological innovation of the Solana eco are still at the forefront of many public chains. We expect it to usher in brilliant performance after the spot ETF is approved. However, at present, the road to “institutionalization” of altcoins is still full of difficulties.

Market Trends: EOS rose 30% after its name change, and BMT’s highest intraday increase exceeded 100%

Market Hotspots

The well-established public chain project EOS Network officially changed its name to Vaulta. The news stimulated EOS to surge 30% within a day. According to the official introduction, Vaulta will focus on Web3 banking business. Vaulta will retain the original technical infrastructure of EOS Network. In addition, Vaulta initially plans to carry out token swap in May this year. Judging from the current market feedback, investors are full of expectations for EOS’s name change and change of development direction. However, the continued strong performance of EOS’s price in the next few months is an early bet on the future development of Vaulta.

BMT, the token of Bubblemaps, a tool on BNB Chain, surged by more than 100% in the day. It was announced that it would be listed on a series of mainstream trading platforms including Gate.io, which stimulated the surge of BMT. The current circulating market value of BMT is only $64 million, ranking 439th in the entire market. Some communities believe that BMT should be regarded as a meme with certain utility on BNB Chain. It is a new coin with certain market popularity and usage scenarios, and it can continue to be paid attention to in the future.

Mainstream Coins

BTC is still in a narrow range of fluctuations, and there will be no major reversal in the short term. In addition, the AHR999 index shows that the current price is suitable for long-termists to invest.

ETH is also in a narrow range around $1,900, with the daily line almost flat, and ETH is converging and fluctuating, waiting to choose a direction.

Altcoins have mixed performances, and BNB Chain projects generally perform better than other public chains.

Macro News: U.S. stocks closed lower, the Federal Reserve will announce its March interest rate decision

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively, with the S&P 500 down 1.07% to 5,614.66 points, the Dow Jones down 0.62% to 41,581.31 points, and the Nasdaq down 1.71% to 17,504.12 points. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.29%, and the 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, was 4.04%.

At 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will end its two-day monetary policy meeting, and Chairman Powell will announce the interest rate decision and the latest economic forecast summary. Investors are particularly concerned about whether there will be a risk of “stagflation” where inflation and unemployment rates rise at the same time. The current market concerns are mainly due to the fact that tariff policies may drag down economic growth and push up consumer prices.

Some analysts said that if Powell sent a dovish signal, indicating that the Fed was willing to cut interest rates quickly when the economy slowed, the market might react positively, but the reality is that the high inflation environment has put the Fed in a difficult position. “The current inflation level is significantly higher than the target. In this case, it is difficult for Powell to show an overly dovish stance.”

The Fed is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5% this week. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates two or three times in late 2025.