According to the latest market data on May 4, 2025 (current price $1,847.66, MA5/EMA5 converging around $1,842, MACD golden cross pattern confirmed), combined with technical indicators and market sentiment, the following precise 1-hour strategy is formulated.

Core strategies and levels
1. EMA30 support, try to go long
- Entry conditions: Price retraces to $1,836-1,839 (EMA30 + EMA10 overlapping support), combined with a 1-hour MACD histogram contraction or RSI < 40 signal.
- Target: Bounce back to $1,847-$1,855 (previous high resistance zone), and if broken, look for $1,872 (weekly pressure).
- Stop loss: Strictly set below $1,830, risk ≤2%.
2. Breakthrough to chase more
- Entry conditions: Price stabilizes at $1,850 (previous high resistance level), with 1-hour closing price confirming the breakout and trading volume > 50 million USDT.
- Target: Looking at 1,865-1,880 USD in the short term (Fibonacci extension level), take profit in batches after breaking through.
- Stop loss: dynamically adjusted to below $1,842 (EMA5 support) to protect profits.
3. Overbought pullback shorting
- Entry conditions: Price rebounds to the resistance of $1,855-$1,865 (KDJ overbought + previous high dense area), a 1-hour long upper shadow appears or MACD bars turn negative.
- Target: Pull back to $1,842-$1,847 (EMA5/EMA10 convergence area), break down to $1,830 (daily EMA60).
- Stop loss: set above $1,870 to guard against false breakouts.
Key Signals and Risk Control
- MACD Momentum: Current MACD bar 1.44 (positive), DIF ( 1.97) crosses above DEA ( 0.53) forming a golden cross pattern, short-term bullish but need to be cautious of a top divergence.
- KDJ Risk: J value 100.31 (overbought), if the price rises and KDJ forms a golden cross pattern, the probability of a pullback increases.
- BTC Correlation: If Bitcoin stabilizes at $85,000, ETH may rise in tandem; if it falls below $84,000, it could drag ETH down to $1,830.
- On-chain risk: The current price of ETH is approaching the maximum pain point of $1,840 for options, and if it falls below $1,830, it will trigger over $250 million in liquidations.
Position and Discipline
- Total position: ≤40%, single leverage ≤2 times (reduce leverage in high volatility).
- Stop-loss discipline: Exit immediately if it falls below $1,830 or if the MACD histogram turns negative and continues to expand.
- Replenishment Plan: If the price drops sharply below $1,820 (EMA60 support), 15% of the funds can be reserved for phased entry.
Summary
ETH is currently in a range of $1,836-$1,855, with a focus on low long positions during the day and high short positions as a supplement. If it stabilizes above $1,850, one can take a light long position, and if it faces resistance at $1,855, consider switching to a short position. Pay attention to the MACD momentum bars and its correlation with BTC, strictly set stop-losses, and avoid blindly chasing after prices in the overbought zone. #Gate.io 空投发现指南# #美联储5月利率预测# #五月行情预测# #BTC# #PI#