Interpreting the Bitcoin Cycle "Three Pumps and One Consolidation": Is there really hope to see $200,000 in 2025?

After the bitcoin halving, the cycle of "three rises and one consolidation" resurfaced, and analysts predicted that 2025 or the peak of the current bull market, aiming to exceed $200,000. (Summary: Arthur Hayes interview: Bitcoin rushes 250,000 magnesium, altcoins will not rise, I don't open leveraged contracts) (Background supplement: Bank of America: Bitcoin is a thousand years of "disruptive innovation", the same level of printing!) History does not repeat itself, but often copies itself. Bitcoin is now trading around $105,000, far from its May 2025 highs, but it has made long-term investors start calculating the next big wave. History shows that the price of bitcoin often plays a rhythm of "three years of growth, one year of consolidation", which coincides with the quadrennial halving. If the pattern doesn't fail, the third year of the cycle in 2025 could be a critical sprint. Bankrate and StatMuse annual return statistics show that they rose from 2011 to 2013 and rolled back in 2014; Rose from 2015 to 2017 and rolled back in 2018; It will rise from 2019 to 2021 and roll back in 2022, and the pattern is clear. Senior analysts pointed out: "If history is replicated, 2025 should extend the momentum of the third year of the cycle, which is expected to bring more than 100% annual growth." Based on this calculation, the price could rise from around $93,226 to around $205,000 and peak in September-October 2025, about 500 days after the halving (Source: CryptoRank). Institutional funding to rewrite old scripts? Compared to previous rounds, the trend of this cycle appears moderate. After the halving in April 2024, only about 33.85% of the remuneration has been accumulated so far, which is far lower than the previous increase of more than 300% in the same range. This is generally attributed to the opening of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the introduction of a large number of long-term institutional funds, coupled with record high computing power and mining difficulty, which inhibits the intensity of short-term speculation and may also extend the life of the bull market. On-chain signals: not yet overheated On-chain sentiment and price cycles corroborate each other. The market value realization ratio (MVRV) is currently about 2.2, which is lower than the 3.5 common in the past mad bull stage ( Source: Babypips). Meanwhile, the UTXO age distribution shows that long-term holders are still in the majority, and short-term funds are not yet dominant. These data suggest that the mania is not high and that the retail mania may be delayed until the second half of 2025. The supply contraction and expanding institutional adoption brought about by the halving are still long-term drivers. Although there is a lot of short-term noise, if the "three additions and one whole" rule continues, investors can focus on 2025, observe market sentiment with indicators such as MVRV and UTXO, and flexibly adjust their positions. From $105,000 to $200,000 may seem far away, but it may just be a halving cycle. Related reports Arthur Hayes interview: Bitcoin rushes 250,000 magnesium, altcoins will not rise, I don't open leveraged contracts Brazil's "Bitcoin Reserve Act" passed the preliminary review, 5% foreign exchange reserves (180 billion US dollars ) buying BTC is one step closer Listed company Eyenovia announced that it invested $50 million in $HYPE, Why Hyperliquid over Bitcoin? 〈Interpretation of the Bitcoin cycle "three rises and one consolidation": Is there really hope to see $200,000 in 2025? This article was first published in BlockTempo's "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media".