June Non-Farm: Does not support The Federal Reserve (FED) to cut interest rates ahead of schedule (maintain original plan)

In June, the U.S. non-farm payroll data comprehensively exceeded market expectations, with job growth, a decrease in the unemployment rate, and no increase in wages (inflation), demonstrating the strong resilience of the labor market.

Key points

-

▪️Employment structure differentiation

In June, the new jobs primarily came from government sectors (+73,000) and low-skilled, labor-intensive industries such as healthcare and leisure accommodation, while the high-tech skilled service industries saw a net reduction of over 70,000.

If the government's support is excluded, the overall momentum is actually weakening.

▪️Strong non-farm data rules out the possibility of a rate cut in July.

New job creation far exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate declined, combined with a slowdown in wage growth, which means that the Federal Reserve (FED) does not have an urgent reason to start a rate cut cycle in July.

The current US economy still has the ability to withstand pressure, and the Federal Reserve (FED) will continue to focus on "preventing inflation from rebounding" as the core of its policy, adopting a "wait-and-see" approach.

If the Great Beautiful Act is passed, there will be approximately 1 trillion in bond issuance demand (fiscal subsidies) in July to September, and inflationary pressures caused by inventory replenishment (tariff trade war) may push up real interest rates, causing disturbances to prices.

Therefore, as inflation disturbances have not yet subsided and fiscal supply shocks have not been digested, along with the June FOMC meeting minutes and Powell's speech this week, the Federal Reserve still shows clear patience and strategic restraint. Whether to initiate interest rate cuts in September will depend on the inflation trend.