#非农就业数据来袭# The June US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data resembles a meticulously orchestrated "paper prosperity." The increase in government jobs glosses over the total employment figures while masking the chill in the private sector and the structural rot in the labor market. As policymakers become enamored with the "low-rate magic" of unemployment, the surge in long-term unemployment, the collapse of small business confidence, and the ADP warning are sounding the real economic alarm. If the Federal Reserve abandons the July interest rate cut due to a single month’s data, it may commit a symmetrical mistake akin to last year's "inflation misjudgment." With tariff shocks yet to fully manifest and economic momentum rapidly stalling, waiting for "perfect data" may lead to policies lagging behind the crisis. When the Treasury Secretary openly questions interest rate decisions, and the gold market responds with a big dump of 1% to expectations of rates dropping to zero, the market has already made it clear with real money: this government-led illusion of prosperity will ultimately be unable to withstand the cold wave of economic fundamentals.