Bitcoin on-chain data warning: This bull run may peak at the end of August, with the Fed's interest rate decision being the market focus this week.

Bitcoin is currently reported around $119,000, with the on-chain indicator MVRV 365-day moving average approaching the historical cycle top signal, suggesting that the bull run may peak from late August to early September. The tariff agreement between the US and Europe has driven a broad rally in risk assets, while the Fed's interest rate decision is the market focus this week. Technical analysis shows that BTC needs to break through the key resistance at $120,000 to aim for $125,000. If it loses the support at $117,800, it may retreat to the $114,000 range.

🔍 MVRV indicator issues cycle top warning

CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei Dent pointed out that the Bitcoin MVRV ratio 365-day moving average (a key on-chain indicator reflecting the unrealized profit and loss of holders) is approaching historical peak levels. This metric reveals the market's profit status by comparing the real-time price of Bitcoin with the average cost of the last on-chain movement of the token. Historical data shows that during the peak of the bull run in 2021, this indicator formed a "double top" structure: the first peak was followed by a second peak six months later, closely coinciding with the bull market's peak. Current data suggests that a similar pattern is forming, and the top of the current cycle could occur between late August and September 10. Although the MVRV is a lagging indicator, it has high confidence in identifying overbought areas in the market, and investors need to balance optimistic expectations with risk management strategies.

🌐 The US-EU trade agreement stimulates a rebound in the crypto market.

Last weekend, the US-EU tariff agreement was finalized, significantly improving the sentiment for risk assets: the US reduced the tariff rate on European goods from 30% to 15%, and the EU promised to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy and invest in joint infrastructure projects. This positive news pushed the price of Bitcoin back to the $119,000 level, simultaneously driving a broad rally in the US stock and cryptocurrency markets. Analysts believe that the increased correlation between crypto assets and traditional markets makes macro policies the key short-term price driver.

📉 Bitcoin's technical analysis shows a key breakthrough window

Currently, Bitcoin continues to oscillate and consolidate below the $120,000 psychological level, with the technical pattern showing three major characteristics:

1. Bollinger Bands indicator narrowing shows a decrease in volatility, but the price remains firmly above the 20-day moving average.
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI) retraced to 61, indicating that the upward momentum is gently slowing but has not turned bearish.
3. The short-term may test the $117,800 support level, if it holds, the upward momentum will be retained; if it effectively breaks through the $120,000 resistance, the upward target will be aimed at $125,000. If the support fails, the pullback risk area is in the range of $114,000 to $116,000.

This Week's Core Focus: Fed's July Interest Rate Decision. Although the market expects the interest rate to remain unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%, any dovish signals regarding the rate cut path for 2024 could become a catalyst for Bitcoin's breakout.

Conclusion As on-chain data issues periodic top warning signals, Bitcoin investors need to be vigilant about the potential market turning risk in August-September. Although short-term macro favorable support comes from the trade agreements between the US and Europe, the Fed's policy direction and the game of key price levels on the technical side will determine the market direction. It is recommended that crypto traders closely monitor the changes in the MVRV indicator and dynamically adjust their position risk management strategies based on the results of the $120,000 breakthrough.