Regarding the judgment on the Fed's interest rate cuts, my personal view, which I have maintained since the beginning of the year, is that the Fed will definitely cut interest rates at least once before September 30 of this fiscal year. The earliest rate cut may appear in the resolution of this month's monetary policy meeting.

My personal judgment is that since April 2, with the indiscriminate tariff war initiated by Trump, we have seen the US dollar index drop from last year's 109 to a current low of 96.
The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds, whether long-term or short-term, has experienced significant fluctuations but is gradually returning to normal.
In July, the CPI did not see a significant rebound under the influence of tariff negotiations, and the PCE remained stable as expected. Although the CPI was slightly higher than the PCE year-on-year and month-on-month by 0.25% to 0.5%, the main reason for this is that the 30% difference between the PCE sampling and the CPI comes from enterprises and government departments. The PPI has already started to respond, and the consensus between Wall Street and the Fed has quietly approached. Wall Street pays more attention to the CPI, while the Fed focuses on the PCE.
The currently released consumption situation has shown a significant decline, with residents' income experiencing the largest drop since 2021.
Although the Fed chairman has repeatedly stated that the impact of the trade war should not be taken lightly so far, he does not rule out the possibility of cutting interest rates at any meeting. Personally, I feel that the current data has provided Fed chairman Powell with many possibilities for rate cuts, and it has also found a way for him to alleviate the confrontation with Trump.
In summary, I personally judge that the Fed will cut interest rates at the earliest in the July meeting, and at the latest, will decide to cut rates before the end of the current fiscal year at the September meeting. #打榜优质内容#