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At 20:30 tonight, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July non-farm payroll report, which could be a key moment influencing the direction of global financial markets. Analysts generally believe that there are four core indicators in this report that are worth paying special attention to:
First, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.2%. If the actual data exceeds expectations, it may indicate that the job market is weakening, which could strengthen the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, benefiting risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Secondly, the non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 110,000, significantly lower than last month's 147,000. If the actual data falls short of expectations, it may indicate that economic growth is slowing down, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to lean towards a more accommodative monetary policy.
The third and fourth key indicators are the annual and monthly rates of wage growth, both of which are expected to rise. If the wage growth rate accelerates, it may raise inflation expectations, thus suppressing expectations for interest rate cuts, which could have a negative impact on risk assets.
It is worth noting that if the employment data performs strongly and exceeds market expectations, it may lead to a downward adjustment of the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, thereby strengthening the US dollar and putting pressure on risk assets.
Overall, the non-farm payroll data released tonight will directly impact the Federal Reserve's future policy decisions. Investors are advised to reassess market trends after the data is released and to carefully manage their investment positions to cope with potential market volatility.