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After the latest non-farm payroll data was released, there was a dramatic shift in the logic of the U.S. bond market. Before the data was released, expectations for interest rate cuts had nearly disappeared, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance caused significant market volatility. However, after the data was published, short-term interest rates dropped sharply, and expectations for rate cuts heated up again.
The inflation data for the coming months, especially for July and August, will be key factors influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions and the direction of the bond market. Notably, market expectations for a possible interest rate cut in September have significantly increased.
For investors, it is important to act cautiously in the current market situation. It is recommended not to blindly chase after rises at low levels, but to wait for a pullback opportunity. More aggressive investors may consider placing long positions above 3520 points, while more conservative investors can wait to enter around 3570 points. In the short term, the market may test the level of 3350 points, and if this level is broken, the next support level may be around 3200 points.
Overall, the release of non-farm data has brought new uncertainty to the market. Investors need to closely monitor subsequent economic data and the Federal Reserve's policy signals to formulate appropriate investment strategies.