The Bitcoin market is about to encounter a crucial 24 hours. From a technical perspective, BTC is currently facing a resistance range of $116,000-$116,200, which is formed by the EMA moving average cluster and the descending trend line on the 4-hour chart. The support level below at $112,500 is provided by the lower boundary of the channel on the daily chart. If this support level is broken, then $110,000 may become the next key price point.

In terms of momentum indicators, the RSI index on the 4-hour chart is at 48, and the MACD indicator also shows a neutral stance. The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands suggests that market volatility may soon increase.

For the upcoming trend, the market seems to lean slightly bullish, with a rise probability of about 55%. If BTC can effectively break through and stabilize above $116,200, then the range of $118,000 to $121,800 will become the next target. This rise may be driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut or favorable CFTC policies.

However, the downside risks cannot be ignored, with a probability of about 45%. If BTC falls below $112,500, it may quickly drop to the $110,000-$108,400 range. It is worth noting that the significant decline in derivatives trading volume (-31.7%) reflects the market's fragility, which could become a potential factor for a downturn.

For traders, if the intraday closing price can break above $116,200, it may be worth considering a small long position with a target price of $118,000. However, it is also important to set a strict stop-loss, and it is recommended to place the stop-loss below $112,000 to guard against potential extreme market conditions.

Overall, the BTC market is at a critical decision point. Whether it breaks upward or seeks a bottom downward, significant price fluctuations may occur in the next 24 hours. Investors need to stay vigilant, closely monitor market trends, and manage risks appropriately.