Market Trends and Key Data Analysis

1. Macroeconomic and Policy Environment

The U.S. President recently signed an executive order imposing "reciprocal" tariffs on products from multiple countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%. This move aims to protect American manufacturing and address trade imbalances. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index rose 2.8% year-on-year in June, reaching a five-month high, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. However, consumer spending growth has slowed, and real disposable income remains flat, limiting consumption willingness.

This week, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but for the first time in a while, two officials voted in favor of a rate cut. The Fed Chair emphasized that the current resilient labor market is the primary determinant of monetary policy. The market is closely watching the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which could be key in determining the direction of policy. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped to fifty percent.

The upcoming implementation of the "Stablecoin Regulation" in Hong Kong has attracted attention from the industry. Analysts believe this marks the official entry of stablecoin technology into the regulatory framework, with a clear structure and credibility attracting many companies to apply for issuance licenses. This indicates that related technology will shift from the concept demonstration phase to large-scale commercial deployment.

2. Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Bitcoin briefly fell below $115,000 this morning but has since rebounded above $115,500. Analysts point out that if it loses the key support at $114,000, market conditions may worsen. There is also a view that $115,883 is an important liquidation level. If bulls can break through the resistance at $118,000, it will open the door to challenge historical highs. On the fundamental side, institutional buyers have significantly increased over the past six weeks, with a buy-sell ratio reaching 100:1, while spot ETFs have resumed net inflows.

Ethereum briefly dipped to around $3600 this morning. Analysts believe that although it continues to face selling pressure at the $4000 mark, its rebound speed has surpassed that of Bitcoin. This is mainly due to retail investors actively buying near the $3600 level. However, cautious sentiment remains in the market, primarily stemming from its ecological TVL and DEX trading volume share declining compared to competitors, along with weak on-chain activity.

In terms of regulation, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has announced the launch of a full commission-level "crypto project" aimed at making the U.S. a global center for crypto assets by amending securities rules. This plan includes several measures such as establishing clear token classification standards, updating custody rules, and simplifying trading licenses.

3. Market Data Overview

As of August 1st, 12:00 HKT:

• Bitcoin Price: $115,619 (Year-to-date +23.51%), Daily Trading Volume $52.244 billion
• Ethereum Price: $3,682.83 (Year-to-Date +11.05%), Daily Trading Volume $34.676 billion
• Fear & Greed Index: 65 (Greed)
• Market Share: BTC 61.1%, ETH 11.8%
• 24-hour liquidation data: 160,329 people globally were liquidated, totaling $630 million

ETF Flows (as of July 31):

• Bitcoin ETF: -$115 million, first net outflow after net inflow in the past 5 days
• Ethereum ETF: +$16.9996 million, continuous net inflow for 20 days

4. Recent Important Events

• Hong Kong has begun implementing the "Stablecoin Regulation"
• Indonesia raises cryptocurrency trading tax rates
• Multiple projects (including SUI, GPS, ZETA, ENA) will unlock tokens in the near future.
• The unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data for the U.S. in July will be announced on August 1.

5. Market Hotspots

• A large social media company achieved an operating income of 14 billion dollars and a net profit of 10 billion dollars in Q2.
• A well-known exchange increased its holdings by 2,509 bitcoins in the second quarter, bringing its total holdings to 11,776 bitcoins.
• The corporate cryptocurrency asset holdings have surpassed 100 billion USD.
• The total value of the ETH treasury reserves of 64 entities has exceeded 10 billion USD.
• A company launches a 3 million SOL staking pool and introduces staking tokens.

The overall market is exhibiting a cautious attitude, with investors closely monitoring upcoming economic data and policy trends. The connection between the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial markets is becoming increasingly tight, and changes in the regulatory environment will continue to impact market trends.