The global financial market is turbulent, and the cryptocurrency market is affected by geopolitical fluctuations.

Recently, risk events in the global financial markets have been frequent, and the geopolitical situation remains tense. This morning, Israel launched airstrikes on multiple nuclear facilities and military targets within Iran, resulting in a sharp increase in international risk aversion, with gold and crude oil prices skyrocketing. Meanwhile, an Air India Boeing 787 passenger plane encountered an accident while en route to the UK, resulting in over 240 fatalities, and Boeing's stock price fell by more than 6%. The domestic situation in the United States is also turbulent, with ongoing riots in Los Angeles, leading to 378 arrests and curfews being imposed in some areas.

In terms of monetary policy, despite multiple calls for a 200 basis point rate cut, the Federal Reserve has maintained its high interest rate stance since December 2024, with the chairman's attitude remaining firm. According to the latest CPI data and the U.S. core PPI data for May, the market expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in September this year, with the possibility of two rate cut opportunities throughout the year.

In this complex macro environment, analysts have pointed out that the global encryption asset market will experience a key turning point from retail-driven to institution-led in the first half of 2025. Bitcoin reached an annual high of $110,000 in May, and the continuous influx of institutional funds has driven the transformation of encryption assets from speculative products to asset allocation tools. Encryption concept stocks have performed strongly, with many related targets recording significant gains.

The resonance logic between crypto assets and concept stocks is mainly driven by three major forces: first, major global economies are accelerating the improvement of regulatory frameworks, enhancing compliance to increase market transparency and the stability of capital inflows; second, institutional capital continues to flow in, reshaping market pricing mechanisms and driving long-term asset allocation; third, technological innovation optimizes infrastructure, pushing market valuation logic to leap towards technological attributes. In addition, the compliance process for stablecoins is accelerating, and the implementation of relevant legislation in the United States and Hong Kong further reshapes financial infrastructure.

However, influenced by the situation in the Middle East, the Bitcoin market experienced a significant correction this morning, falling below the $103,000 mark. Some analysts believe that the cryptocurrency is moving in line with major risk assets and expect Bitcoin to find technical support around $101,000, but the short-term price trend will be mainly affected by geopolitical situations.

In terms of Ethereum, although the price has fallen below $2500, down 9.2% in 24 hours, institutional investors are still actively positioning themselves. One address purchased 2825 ETH again this morning, and over the past two weeks, this address has accumulated 160736 ETH (worth $421 million). Another institutional investor, after today's market drop, utilized 127 million USDC within 6 hours to buy 48800 ETH at a discount.

According to a report from a certain analysis team, if the ETH price falls below $2320, it may test the range between $2000 and $1800, but in the short term, it is more likely to continue rising. If ETH breaks through $2793, it may trigger a new round of increases, with a target price potentially reaching $4000; even with short-term corrections, it is expected to break $3000 in July or August, with the year-end target maintained at $4000.

In terms of market dynamics, some AI and Meme projects experienced a short-term rapid rise followed by a pullback. Notably, after a certain token reached a new high, a Canadian listed company increased its holdings by 10,387 tokens at an average price of $42.24. On the other hand, a Nasdaq-listed company saw its stock price plummet 70% in after-hours trading on June 13 due to the submission of a registration statement allowing PIPE financing-related shareholders to resell nearly 58.7 million shares. Although the chairman of the company's board clarified that this is just a standard procedure and not an actual sell-off, the market reaction was still severe.

Market Data and Outlook

As of June 13, 12:00 HKT, the price of Bitcoin is $104,417, with a year-to-date increase of 11.54% and a daily spot trading volume of $47.667 billion. The price of Ethereum is $2,511.08, with a year-to-date decrease of 24.64% and a daily spot trading volume of $38.332 billion. The market fear and greed index is 54, indicating a neutral level.

As for ETF flow, as of June 12, Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net inflow for 4 consecutive days, increasing by $86.3114 million; Ethereum ETFs have seen a net inflow for 19 consecutive days, increasing by $112 million.

Today's market outlook includes the listing of multiple project tokens, unlocking, and updates on trading functions. Notably, a certain trading platform will enable 24/7 trading of XRP and SOL futures for US traders. In addition, several projects will unlock a large number of tokens in the near future, which may impact the market.

In the hot news, including Anthony Pompliano's upcoming leadership in a public company's financing to purchase Bitcoin, a Canadian public company acquiring HYPE tokens, FTX/Alameda transferring SOL tokens, and the U.S. Senate about to vote on the stablecoin bill, etc. In addition, reports show that 74% of family offices have allocated or are considering allocating digital assets, reflecting institutional investors' ongoing interest in encryption assets.

Overall, the current cryptocurrency asset market is still influenced by geopolitical situations and macroeconomic environments, showing a certain degree of fluctuation. Investors need to closely monitor global developments and various market indicators, and make investment decisions prudently.