The Truth About Liquidity: A Study on the Coin Listing Effect in Exchanges in 2024

1. Research Introduction

1.1 Research Background

Since the beginning of this year, the market has sparked widespread discussion regarding VC tokens with high fully diluted valuations ( FDV ) but low circulating market caps ( MC ). With the new tokens issued in 2024, the MC/FDV ratio has dropped to its lowest level in the past three years, indicating that a large number of tokens will be unlocked and enter the market in the future. Although the initial circulation is low, the market may drive prices up in the short term due to increased demand, but this rise lacks sustainability. Once a large number of tokens are unlocked and enter the market, the risk of oversupply increases, and investors begin to worry that this market structure may not be able to provide lasting support for price increases.

Therefore, many investors' interests have begun to shift from these VC coins to Meme coins. The characteristic of Meme coins is that most of the tokens are fully unlocked at TGE, resulting in a higher circulation rate, with no selling pressure from future unlocks. This structure reduces the supply pressure on the market, giving investors more confidence. Many Meme coins have a market cap to fully diluted valuation (MC/FDV) ratio close to 1 at issuance, meaning holders will not face dilution due to further token issuance, providing a relatively stable market environment. As awareness of the risks associated with large-scale token unlocks deepens, investors' interest has gradually shifted to these high liquidity, low inflation rate Meme coins, even though these tokens may lack practical application scenarios.

In the current market landscape, investors are required to be more cautious when selecting tokens. However, when investors choose tokens, they often find it difficult to independently assess the value and potential of each project. At this point, the screening mechanism of the exchange becomes crucial. As the "gatekeeper" that directly pushes token assets to users, centralized exchanges not only help verify the compliance and market potential of tokens but also play a role in filtering high-quality projects. Although there is another voice in the market that on-chain transactions will surpass CEX transactions, this study believes that the market share of centralized exchanges will not be taken over by on-chain transactions. Factors such as the smoothness of CEX transactions, centralized custodianship of responsible assets, the establishment of user habits and mindsets, barriers to liquidity, and the trend of global regulatory compliance will ensure that the transaction share within CEX will long-term and continuously exceed that of on-chain transactions.

So, the question that follows is, how do centralized exchanges filter and decide which projects to list among many? How have the coins that have been listed in the past year performed overall? Is there a correlation between the performance of these listed tokens and the exchanges they were chosen to be listed on?

In order to address these market concerns, this study aims to explore the listing situations of major exchanges and analyze their actual impact on the token market performance, focusing on the changes in trading volume and price volatility characteristics after listing, to identify the influence of different exchanges on the market performance of coins after they are listed.

1.2 Research Methods

1.2.1 Research Object

We combine the exchange with regions and market orientation, mainly divided into these three categories:

Created by Chinese people, aimed at the global market: Binance, Bybit, OKX, Bitget, KuCoin, Gate, etc. These are well-known exchanges mainly founded and invested by Chinese individuals, targeting the global market. There are many Chinese exchanges, and for the purpose of research, the selected exchanges have different developmental characteristics, while the exchanges not selected also have their own advantages.

South Korea's creation, targeting the local market: Bithumb, UPbit, etc. Primarily aimed at the South Korean local market.

Created in the US, targeting Europe and America: Coinbase, Kraken, etc. US exchanges mainly target the European and American markets and are usually subject to strict regulation by the SEC, CFTC, and others.

Exchanges in regions such as Latin America, India, and Africa, due to their overall trading volume and Liquidity being less than 5%, will not be analyzed in depth in this report.

We selected a total of 10 representative exchanges from the above, analyzing their coin listing performance, including the number of coin listing events and their subsequent market impact.

1.2.2 Time Range

Mainly focus on the price changes of the token on the 1st day after the TGE, as well as in the previous 7 days and 30 days, to analyze its trends, volatility patterns, and market reactions. The reasons are as follows:

• On the first day of TGE, the new asset is issued, and the trading volume is highly active, reflecting the market's immediate acceptance. It is significantly influenced by the rush to buy and FOMO sentiment, marking a crucial phase in the initial pricing of the market.
• The price changes in the first 7 days after the TGE can capture the market's short-term sentiment towards the new token, as well as the initial recognition of the project's fundamentals, measure the sustainability of market heat, and revert to the project's reasonable initial pricing.
• The first 30 days after the TGE will observe the long-term support of the coin, as short-term speculation cools down, and speculators gradually exit. Whether the coin price and trading volume are maintained becomes an important reference for market recognition.

1.2.3 Data Processing

This study employs a systematic data processing method to ensure the scientific nature of the analysis. Compared to commonly found research methods in the market, this study is more intuitive, concise, and efficient.

This research report primarily uses data from TradingView, covering the price data of new tokens launched on major exchanges in 2024, including initial listing prices, market prices at different points in time, and trading volumes. Due to the large number of sample points, this large-scale data analysis helps to reduce the impact of individual outlier data on the overall trend, thereby improving the reliability of the statistical results.

(I)Overview of Multi-Variable Token Listing Activities

This study uses multivariate analysis methods to comprehensively consider factors such as market conditions, trading depth, and liquidity to ensure the comprehensiveness and scientific nature of the results. We compared the average price fluctuations of new coins across different exchanges and conducted an in-depth analysis in conjunction with the market positioning of the exchanges, such as user base, liquidity, and coin listing strategies.

(II)Average value judgment of overall performance

To measure the market performance of the token, we calculated its percentage change relative to the initial listing price (Percentage Change ), with the formula as follows:

Percentage Change = (Current Price - Initial Price) / Initial Price * 100%

Considering that extreme situations in the market may affect the overall data trend, we have excluded the top 10% and bottom 10% of extreme outliers to reduce the interference of incidental market events ( such as sudden positive news, market manipulation, and liquidity anomalies ) on the statistical results. This approach makes the computed results more representative and able to more accurately reflect the true market performance of new coins across different exchanges. Subsequently, we calculated the mean of the price fluctuations of new coins across exchanges to assess the overall performance of new coin markets on different platforms.

(III)Coefficient of Variation Stability Assessment

Coefficient of Variation, CV( is an indicator that measures the relative volatility of data, and its calculation formula is:

CV = σ / μ

In this context, σ represents the standard deviation, and μ represents the mean. The coefficient of variation is a dimensionless indicator, unaffected by the units of data, making it suitable for comparing the volatility of different datasets. In market analysis, CV is primarily used to measure the relative volatility of prices or returns. In exchange or token price analysis, CV can reflect the relative stability of different markets, providing investors with a basis for risk assessment. The coefficient of variation is used here instead of the standard deviation, as it has greater applicability compared to the standard deviation.

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2. Overview of Coin Listing Activities

) 2.1 Comparison Between Exchanges

(# 2.1.1 Number of Coins and FDV Preference

We found that, from an overall data perspective, top exchanges ) such as Binance, UPbit, and Coinbase ### generally have fewer listed coins compared to other exchanges. This reflects how the different positions of exchanges affect their coin listing styles.

In terms of the number of listed coins, exchanges like Binance, OKX, UPbit, and Coinbase have stricter listing rules, leading to fewer but larger listings; while exchanges like Gate list new assets more frequently, providing more trading opportunities. Data shows that the number of listed coins is roughly negatively correlated with FDV, meaning that exchanges that list more high FDV projects typically have fewer listed coins.

CEX adopts different strategies to determine the priority of listing coins, focusing on different fully diluted valuations ### FDV ( tiers. Here we categorize based on the project's FDV to better understand the standards for listing coins on exchanges. When valuing tokens, we often consider MC and FDV, which together reflect the valuation, market size, and Liquidity of the token.

• MC only calculates the total value of the currently circulating tokens, without considering the tokens that will be unlocked in the future, which may lead to an undervaluation of the project's true worth, especially when most tokens have not yet been unlocked, making it easy to mislead.
• FDV is calculated based on the total supply of all tokens, which can more comprehensively reflect the potential valuation of a project and help investors assess future selling pressure risks and long-term value. For projects with low MC/FDV, the short-term reference significance of FDV is limited, and it is more of a long-term reference.

Therefore, when analyzing newly launched tokens, FDV is more referential than Market Cap. Here we choose FDV as the standard.

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In addition, from the perspective of the attitude towards initial projects, most exchanges usually adopt a balanced strategy, that is, taking into account both initial and non-initial projects, but generally have higher requirements for non-initial projects because initial projects tend to bring in more new users. Furthermore, two South Korean exchanges, UPbit and Bithumb, mainly focus on listing non-initial coins. This is because, compared to initial coins, listing non-initial coins can reduce screening risks and avoid market fluctuations and initial liquidity shortages during the initial phase. At the same time, for project parties, compared to initial projects, they do not need to bear excessive market promotion and liquidity management pressure; listing non-initial coins can leverage existing market recognition to drive growth.

) 2.1.2 Track Preference

(# Binance

In 2024, the number of Meme coins still accounts for the largest proportion. Infra and DeFi projects have a relatively large share. The number of coins in the RWA and DePIN tracks on Binance is relatively small, but the overall performance is quite good. Among them, the highest increase in USUAL spot reached 7081%. Although Binance is cautious in its coin selection in these areas, once launched, the market response is usually quite positive. In the second half of the year, Binance's coin preferences in the AI track are clearly leaning towards AI Agent tokens, which have the highest proportion among AI projects.

In 2024, Binance shows a preference for the BNB ecosystem. For example, the launch of projects like BANANA and CGPT indicates that Binance is strengthening its support for its own on-chain ecosystem.

)# OKX

The number of coins listed on OKX also shows that the number of Memes is the highest, accounting for about 25%. Compared to other exchanges, there are more coins in the public chain and infrastructure track, with a total share reaching 34%. This indicates that, in contrast, OKX is more focused on underlying technology innovation, scalability optimization, and sustainable development of the blockchain ecosystem in 2024.

In emerging tracks, OKX has only listed 4 types of AI coins, including DMAIL and GPT, launched 3 new coins in the RWA track, and only 3 in the DePIN track. This reflects OKX's relatively cautious layout in relatively emerging tracks.

UPbit

The biggest feature of UPbit in 2024 is its wide coverage of sectors, with token performance generally being good. In 2024, UNI and BNT were launched in the DEX sector. This indicates that UPbit still has significant potential and room for development in listing popular assets, as many mainstream or high market cap tokens have yet to be listed, and further support may be expanded in the future. At the same time, this also reflects that UPbit has a relatively strict review process for listing, preferring to carefully select assets with long-term potential.

On UPbit, the tokens in various tracks have shown remarkable increases. PEPE### Meme###, AGLD### Game(, DRIFT ) DeFi(, SAFE ) Infra( and other tokens have significantly increased in a short period, reaching as high as 100% or even over 150%. UNI saw an increase of up to 93.5% compared to the first day after its 30th day of listing. This reflects the high recognition of UPbit's listed projects by Korean users.

In addition, from the perspective of public chain ecosystems, public chains like Solana and TON are quite favored. We have also observed that exchanges are gradually deepening their support for their own blockchain ecosystems. For example, Binance's associated BSC and opBNB chains have continuously strengthened their support for their own on-chain ecosystems. Similarly, Coinbase's Base has also become a key focus for support, accounting for nearly 40% of all new coins launched in 2024. Meanwhile, OKX is building its X Layer ecosystem.