The Fed maintains interest rates unchanged, the crypto market appears calm but there are undercurrents.

The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday afternoon that it will keep the benchmark Interest Rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting of stable rates, in line with market expectations.

Despite a reduction in the uncertainty of the economic outlook, the Fed stated that it remains at a high level. They lowered the 2025 U.S. GDP growth forecast to 1.4%, while raising the inflation forecast to 3%, reflecting the dilemma between economic recovery and inflation control.

The Fed's "dot plot" indicates that two rate cuts (a total of 50 basis points) are expected in 2025, consistent with expectations from March. However, the forecast for rate cuts in 2026 has been revised down from two to one (only 25 basis points). Notably, 7 out of the 19 Fed officials believe there will be no rate cuts in 2025, reflecting internal disagreements about the future policy path.

Despite the Fed's decisions having a significant impact on global financial markets, the crypto market has remained relatively calm. Bitcoin (BTC) is holding steady around $104,000, Ethereum (ETH) is hovering around $2,520, and XRP and Solana are also essentially flat.

Data shows that the total market value of the crypto market slightly fell by 2% to $3.35 trillion that day, with $224 million in leveraged liquidations occurring, where Ethereum had the largest liquidation volume, followed by Bitcoin. This indicates that the internal struggle between bulls and bears in the market remains intense.

It is worth mentioning that the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $216 million on June 17, while the spot Ethereum ETF also saw an inflow of $11 million, indicating that institutional funds continue to enter the crypto market, providing support for the market bottom.

Market analysts believe that this relatively calm response reflects investors' cautious attitude following the Fed's decision, waiting for clearer macroeconomic signals.

On the day of the Fed meeting, Trump publicly criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell again, calling him "stupid" and predicting that the Fed would not cut interest rates. Trump has long criticized Powell's policies as "costing the country a lot of money," questioning his political stance. Although these remarks have attracted attention, they do not seem to have had a significant impact on the crypto market.

An industry expert pointed out that despite the tense situation in the Middle East and a turbulent macro environment, cryptocurrency prices have remained almost unchanged over the past week. Bitcoin has fluctuated narrowly around $105,000, with a daily volatility of less than 2.1%, and there has been no large-scale sell-off. However, he warned that the escalating macro risks should not be ignored, as the crypto market will not be immune if geopolitical tensions worsen and affect the financial system.

On-chain data shows that the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV Ratio) of Bitcoin is currently 2.25, lower than the historical market peak. This indicates that the market is not yet overheated and Bitcoin still has room for growth.

Another study pointed out that the "old supply" of Bitcoin (Bitcoin that has not moved for at least ten years) is growing faster than the daily issuance of new Bitcoin. Since April 2024, an average of 566 Bitcoin has entered the "over ten years" unused queue each day, surpassing the 450 Bitcoin circulation added daily by miners.

The "old supply" currently accounts for more than 17% of all mined bitcoins, valued at approximately $360 billion. Experts predict that by 2035, the "old supply" will exceed 30% of the circulating supply of bitcoins.

This scarcity, while not directly guaranteeing a price increase, will tighten the supply of Bitcoin available for trading as the number held by long-term holders continues to increase, making price discovery increasingly reliant on marginal flows. Over time, Bitcoin's scarcity is expected to continue to strengthen, and if future demand grows in sync, this could become a core advantage that distinguishes it from other assets.